The Black Swan of Cairo

Complex systems that have artificially
suppressed volatility tend to become
extremely fragile, while at the same time
exhibiting no visible risks. In fact, they
tend to be too calm and exhibit minimal
variability as silent risks accumulate
beneath the surface. Although the stated
intention of political leaders and economic
policymakers is to stabilize the system by
inhibiting fluctuations, the result tends
to be the opposite. These artificially constrained
systems become prone to “Black
Swans”—that is, they become extremely
vulnerable to large-scale events that lie far
from the statistical norm and were largely
unpredictable to a given set of observers.