June 6, 2003 - Fannie Mae Chief Executive - No Housing Bubble

Fannie Mae's Raines Sees No Housing Bubble, Low Interest Rates

June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae Chief Executive Franklin Raines, who runs the biggest mortgage portfolio in the world, said the continuing rise in housing prices won't end in a bust like the stock market of three years ago.
``We do not see any sign of housing price decline nationwide, let alone the bursting of a bubble,'' Raines said in an interview with Bloomberg News in New York.

http://tinyurl.com/ltysuw

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There is no housing bubble in the USA - April, 2005

There is no housing bubble in the USA: housing activity will remain at high levels in 2005 and beyond

Business Economics, April, 2005 by James F. Smith

There is no evidence of a housing "bubble" in the United States and housing demand should stay strong for years to come. Three major factors lead to this conclusion. First, the 77 million baby boomers are approaching the peak home ownership ages of 65-75 (over 83.0 percent versus a national average in 2004 of 69.0 percent). Second, immigrants, a growing share of the U.S. population, tend to buy houses ten years later than people born in the United States of the same income group and family size. Third, mortgage rates are not likely to go high enough (8.0 percent or more for 30-year fixed rate mortgages) to put a crimp in demand. Despite some areas of concern, overall homeowners' equity is at record levels above $9 trillion. Delinquencies are still less than one percent of mortgages outstanding.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1094/is_2_40/ai_n13798086/

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April 2006 There is no housing bubble. Right.

April 2006
Bubble, Bubble, Where's the Housing Bubble?
Professors of economics, Gary Smith and Margaret H. Smith, say:

They found bubble conditions in only one of the 10 metropolitan U.S. housing markets evaluated.The professors dismiss talk of a housing bubble questioning the assumption that home prices have exceeded their fundamental value. "Perhaps housing prices were too low in the past and recent prices have brought market prices more in line with fundamental". They claim that existing methods, using indirect measures or values predicted by regression models, cannot show if housing prices are justified by the anticipated cash flow. They feel their model, using unique rent and price data for matched single-family homes, is a more accurate measure of fundamental home values.


... homes in Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties were still somewhat undervalued by11 percent and 20 percent, respectively. Outside California, homes also were undervalued in Boston (12 percent under) and Chicago(17 percent under). Under valuation was dramatic in Dallas (40 percent), Atlanta(53 percent), Indianapolis (65 percent) and pre-Hurricane Katrina New Orleans(46 percent).

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October 27, 2005 Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust

By Nell Henderson

Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, October 27, 2005

Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.

U.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/26/AR2005102602255.html

There is no housing bubble April 2006

April 2006
Bubble, Bubble, Where's the Housing Bubble?
Professors of economics, Gary Smith and Margaret H. Smith, say ....  They found bubble conditions in only one of the 10 metropolitan U.S.
housing markets evaluated.
The professors dismiss talk of a housing bubble questioning the assumption
that home prices have exceeded their fundamental value. "Perhaps housing
prices were too low in the past and recent prices have brought market prices
more in line with fundamental". They claim that existing methods, using
indirect measures or values predicted by regression models, cannot show if
housing prices are justified by the anticipated cash flow. They feel their
model, using unique rent and price data for matched single-family homes, is
a more accurate measure of fundamental home values.

Aug 2008 - Housing Collapse Ahead? Not According to the Professor

We conclude that declines in house prices are highly likely to remain small. Our analysis reveals, unsurprisingly, that foreclosures and home prices have negative effects on each other over time, but this does not imply a vicious cycle of collapsing prices. Our models predict that as foreclosures continue to climb in many states, house prices will remain flat or decline in those states -- but will not collapse.
-----------------------
But fears of a huge loss in home values for most homeowners -- and especially for middle-income homeowners -- across the United States, and fears of the devastating losses by financial institutions that would accompany them, are greatly overblown.
Charles W. Calomiris is Henry Kaufman professor of financial institutions at Columbia University and a visiting research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Stanley D. Longhofer directs the Center for Real Estate at Wichita State University's business school. William Miles is an associate professor of economics and Barton fellow at Wichita State.

June 6, 2003 - Fannie Mae Chief Executive - No Housing Bubble

Fannie Mae's Raines Sees No Housing Bubble, Low Interest Rates
June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae Chief Executive Franklin Raines, who runs the biggest mortgage portfolio in the world, said the continuing rise in housing prices won't end in a bust like the stock market of three years ago.
"We do not see any sign of housing price decline nationwide, let alone the bursting of a bubble," Raines said in an interview with Bloomberg News in New York.