Traditionally a study is said to be "statistically significant" if the odds are only 1 in 20 that the result could be pure chance. If you test 20 false hypotheses, one of them is likely to show up as true, on average.
Assuming that the new paper is itself correct, problems with experimental and statistical methods mean that there is less than a 50% chance that the results of any randomly chosen scientific paper are true.
John Ioannidis, an epidemiologist at the University of Ioannina School of Medicine in Greece, says that small sample sizes, poor study design, researcher bias, and selective reporting and other problems combine to make most research findings false.
"We should accept that most research findings will be refuted. Some will be replicated and validated. The replication process is more important than the first discovery," Ioannidis says.
www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7915&feedId=online-news_rss20
Tuesday, August 30, 2005
Monday, August 29, 2005
Heart bypass surgery increases risk of Alzheimer's
Researchers have discovered that patients who have either coronary artery bypass graft surgery or coronary angioplasty are at an increased risk of developing Alzheimer's disease. The research, which appears in the current issue of the Journal of Alzheimer's Disease, pinpoints stress and trauma of the surgery as the major cause for the increased risk."
Study says coffee healthier than Fruit
COFFEE is likely to contribute far more health-giving anti- oxidants to the British diet than fruit and vegetables, new research suggests.
The evidence comes from the United States, where scientists measured the antioxidant content of more than 100 items, including vegetables, fruits, nuts, spices, oils and beverages.
Coffee emerged as easily the biggest source of antioxidants, taking account of the amount per serving and level of consumption. Black tea came second, followed by bananas, dry beans and corn.
"Americans get more of their antioxidants from coffee than any other dietary source - nothing else comes close," said the leader of the study, Professor Joe Vinson, of Scranton University, Pennsylvania.
The evidence comes from the United States, where scientists measured the antioxidant content of more than 100 items, including vegetables, fruits, nuts, spices, oils and beverages.
Coffee emerged as easily the biggest source of antioxidants, taking account of the amount per serving and level of consumption. Black tea came second, followed by bananas, dry beans and corn.
"Americans get more of their antioxidants from coffee than any other dietary source - nothing else comes close," said the leader of the study, Professor Joe Vinson, of Scranton University, Pennsylvania.
Thursday, August 25, 2005
P E A K O I L - Cliff Notes version
P E A K O I L | Lecture: "Main Points
In summary, these are the main points that we have to grasp:
· Conventional oil - and I will explain what I mean by that - provides most of the oil produced today, and is responsible for about 95% all oil that has been produced so far.
· It will continue to dominate supply for a long time to come. It is what matters most.
· Its discovery peaked in the 1960s. We now find one barrel for every four we consume.
· Middle East share of production is set to rise. The rest of the world peaked in 1997, and is therefore in terminal decline
· World peak comes within about five years
· Non-conventional oil delays peak only a few years, but will ameliorate the subsequent decline
· Gas, which is less depleted than oil, will likely peak around 2020"
The whole lecture - 30 minutes - click below
http://www.geologie.tu-clausthal.de/Campbell/lecture.html
In summary, these are the main points that we have to grasp:
· Conventional oil - and I will explain what I mean by that - provides most of the oil produced today, and is responsible for about 95% all oil that has been produced so far.
· It will continue to dominate supply for a long time to come. It is what matters most.
· Its discovery peaked in the 1960s. We now find one barrel for every four we consume.
· Middle East share of production is set to rise. The rest of the world peaked in 1997, and is therefore in terminal decline
· World peak comes within about five years
· Non-conventional oil delays peak only a few years, but will ameliorate the subsequent decline
· Gas, which is less depleted than oil, will likely peak around 2020"
The whole lecture - 30 minutes - click below
http://www.geologie.tu-clausthal.de/Campbell/lecture.html
Personality tests: free & four questions- works for me.
Personality Tests
Free Myers-Briggs test ?
Well, actually, it's not really the Myers Briggs test, but something like it. An adaptation of it.
And yes, it's still free. Just click on the title above.
Or haleonline.com/psychtest/
Free Myers-Briggs test ?
Well, actually, it's not really the Myers Briggs test, but something like it. An adaptation of it.
And yes, it's still free. Just click on the title above.
Or haleonline.com/psychtest/
Monday, August 22, 2005
Ben Stein on his mother
The most permanent feature of life, when you are a child, is your mother. She is always there telling you to study more, to stand straighter, to clean up your room, to speak more clearly. She is always warning you, cautioning you, telling you what a bleak future you are going to have if you don't mend your ways.
That, at least, was my mother. She had grown up with a father who died when she was nine, had to make it through the Great Depression by studying super hard and getting scholarships, and that was the way she saw life.
And, truth to tell, I didn't like her much for it. I didn't like her paying so much attention to me. I wanted her to leave me alone.
Time passed. My mother didn't leave me alone.
When I went off to college in a city where I knew hardly a soul, a city called New York, my mother wrote me a letter, sometimes two, every day, so I would have something in my mail box at Columbia. There were no e-mails then and long distance was expensive so she sat down with a pen and paper and wrote me letters, often hilarious, about her life in Maryland.
I had a girlfriend at the University of Chicago one year and my mother insisted on sending me a plane ticket to go see her--again, so I would not be lonely.
When I went to law school in New Haven, my mother also wrote me every day. She did not want me to be alone or lonely. She had been a lonely child and she knew it hurt.
When I got married, she called my wife or me every few days and wrote us frequent letters.
When I lost my job at the White House because my boss, Mr. Nixon, resigned, my mother called her high powered friends until she got me not just one but many job offers. I didn't take any of them, but there she was, not leaving me alone, again.
She loved dogs and she loved to travel. She was in France when my beloved Weimaraner, Mary, died. She offered to come home to help bury Mary. To Los Angeles.
When she grew old, I would go once a month to visit her and my Pop in Washington. When I would leave, she would follow me down the hallway at The Watergate and look at me as if she were trying to work me into her immortal soul forever. Wherever I went, she would be on the phone calling me before anyone else. She would not let me alone.
My mother died unexpectedly of heart failure on April 21, 1997. She left me alone, and I hate it. I hate that there are no more letters from her, no more long last looks as walk down the hall at The Watergate. I still look to see if there are any messages from her at the hotels where I spend most of my time. I have a great wife and she pays attention to me, and I am old by now anyway. But I miss having someone telling me what to do, paying attention to me every single second at every moment of my life. When you are a child, it's a pain and a burden. But love it anyway. The time will come when your mother does leave you alone, and the silence is deafening. And, yes, it's lonely.
http://www.benstein.com/050805md.html
That, at least, was my mother. She had grown up with a father who died when she was nine, had to make it through the Great Depression by studying super hard and getting scholarships, and that was the way she saw life.
And, truth to tell, I didn't like her much for it. I didn't like her paying so much attention to me. I wanted her to leave me alone.
Time passed. My mother didn't leave me alone.
When I went off to college in a city where I knew hardly a soul, a city called New York, my mother wrote me a letter, sometimes two, every day, so I would have something in my mail box at Columbia. There were no e-mails then and long distance was expensive so she sat down with a pen and paper and wrote me letters, often hilarious, about her life in Maryland.
I had a girlfriend at the University of Chicago one year and my mother insisted on sending me a plane ticket to go see her--again, so I would not be lonely.
When I went to law school in New Haven, my mother also wrote me every day. She did not want me to be alone or lonely. She had been a lonely child and she knew it hurt.
When I got married, she called my wife or me every few days and wrote us frequent letters.
When I lost my job at the White House because my boss, Mr. Nixon, resigned, my mother called her high powered friends until she got me not just one but many job offers. I didn't take any of them, but there she was, not leaving me alone, again.
She loved dogs and she loved to travel. She was in France when my beloved Weimaraner, Mary, died. She offered to come home to help bury Mary. To Los Angeles.
When she grew old, I would go once a month to visit her and my Pop in Washington. When I would leave, she would follow me down the hallway at The Watergate and look at me as if she were trying to work me into her immortal soul forever. Wherever I went, she would be on the phone calling me before anyone else. She would not let me alone.
My mother died unexpectedly of heart failure on April 21, 1997. She left me alone, and I hate it. I hate that there are no more letters from her, no more long last looks as walk down the hall at The Watergate. I still look to see if there are any messages from her at the hotels where I spend most of my time. I have a great wife and she pays attention to me, and I am old by now anyway. But I miss having someone telling me what to do, paying attention to me every single second at every moment of my life. When you are a child, it's a pain and a burden. But love it anyway. The time will come when your mother does leave you alone, and the silence is deafening. And, yes, it's lonely.
http://www.benstein.com/050805md.html
Sunday, August 21, 2005
Your Aunt Rosie was right!
Gory and erotic images can affect your vision
IT'S true. Pornography can make you blind. Look at a smutty picture and, according to research by Steven Most, of Yale University, and his colleagues, you will suffer from a temporary condition known as emotion-induced blindness.
Dr Most made this discovery while studying the rubbernecking effect (when people slow down to stare at a car accident). Rubbernecking represents a serious lapse of attention to the road, but he wondered if the initial reaction to such gory scenes could cause smaller lapses. The answer is, it does. What he found was that when people look at gory images—and also erotic ones—they fail to process what they see immediately afterwards. This period of blindness lasts between two-tenths and eight-tenths of a second. That is long enough for a driver transfixed by an erotic advert on a billboard to cause an accident.
http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?story_id=4292593&fsrc=RSS
Friday, August 19, 2005
Handy Tip: Use "herb" as animal feed
Stone the cows? Russia uses pot as animal feed - Yahoo! News:
Tue Aug 16, 4:55
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's long winter will just fly by for a herd of Russian cows which, a newspaper reported on Tuesday, will be fed confiscated marijuana over the cold months.
Drug workers said they adopted the unusual form of animal husbandry after they were forced to destroy the sunflowers and maize crops that the 40 tonnes of marijuana had been planted among, Novye Izvestia daily reported.
'There is simply no other way out. You see, the fields are planted with feed crops and if we remove it all the cows will have nothing to eat,' a Federal Drugs Control Service spokeswoman for the Urals region of Sverdlovsk told the paper.
'I don't know what the milk will be like after this.'
Drug use in Russia took off with the decline of the Soviet Union and police have been fighting drug smugglers -- often shipping heroin from
Afghanistan -- for years."
Be afraid or cautious?
Quiz: Is Your Boss a Psychopath?
The standard clinical test for psychopathy, Robert Hare's PCL-R, evaluates 20 personality traits overall, but a subset of eight traits defines what he calls the 'corporate psychopath' -- the nonviolent person prone to the 'selfish, callous, and remorseless use of others.' Does your boss fit the profile? Here's our do-it-yourself quiz drawing on the test manual and Hare's book Without Conscience. (Disclaimer: If you're not a psychologist or psychiatrist, this will be a strictly amateur exercise.) We've used the pronoun 'he,' but research suggests psychologists have underestimated the psychopathic propensity of women."
click here for full quiz
The standard clinical test for psychopathy, Robert Hare's PCL-R, evaluates 20 personality traits overall, but a subset of eight traits defines what he calls the 'corporate psychopath' -- the nonviolent person prone to the 'selfish, callous, and remorseless use of others.' Does your boss fit the profile? Here's our do-it-yourself quiz drawing on the test manual and Hare's book Without Conscience. (Disclaimer: If you're not a psychologist or psychiatrist, this will be a strictly amateur exercise.) We've used the pronoun 'he,' but research suggests psychologists have underestimated the psychopathic propensity of women."
click here for full quiz
Friday, August 12, 2005
Boring Phone Call?
Jerk-O-Meter calls out your boredom on the phone
Researchers at MIT are developing software for cellphones that analyzes speech patterns and voice tones and rates how engaged you are in the conversation. It measures the levels of stress and empathy in a person’s voice and, when your attention starts to drift, pops up warning messages to the effect of “Don’t be a jerk!” or “Be a little nicer now.” For now it’s monitoring the user’s end of the conversation, but the final version will allow you to monitor the voice on the other end and finally prove once and for all that your spouse never really listens to you."
Thursday, August 11, 2005
Sunday, August 07, 2005
One man chained himself to the door
The Housing Bubble 2: "1920's Florida: 'Real Estate Madness In Excelsis'
The Wall Street Journal looks back at the 1920's Florida madness. 'Gertrude Shelby asked her readers a question in a 1926 issue of Harper's magazine: 'Did you ever keep chickens?' Ms. Shelby was using a metaphor to explain the rapid inflation of property prices in Florida. 'Put down a pan full of big scraps, and the hens come running. The first ones grab big pieces and depart rapidly. The others see the pieces in the beaks, and instead of realizing there's plenty more in the pan, they chase the hens who got the first pieces. That's resale psychology.''
'In less than a decade, that psychology transformed Florida from an overgrown bog to the epicenter of get-rich-quick schemes. The Florida boom of the 1920s was far from America's first land rush, but it was certainly one of its most colorful. When D. Davis's first two island developments near Tampa went on the market in October 1924, people lined up for 40 hours before the sale began. One man chained himself to the door so he wouldn't lose his place. Not only did the entire 875 acres, much of it still underwater, sell out for $18 million, but an additional $8.2 million was returned to eager buyers whose money had arrived too late.'"
The Wall Street Journal looks back at the 1920's Florida madness. 'Gertrude Shelby asked her readers a question in a 1926 issue of Harper's magazine: 'Did you ever keep chickens?' Ms. Shelby was using a metaphor to explain the rapid inflation of property prices in Florida. 'Put down a pan full of big scraps, and the hens come running. The first ones grab big pieces and depart rapidly. The others see the pieces in the beaks, and instead of realizing there's plenty more in the pan, they chase the hens who got the first pieces. That's resale psychology.''
'In less than a decade, that psychology transformed Florida from an overgrown bog to the epicenter of get-rich-quick schemes. The Florida boom of the 1920s was far from America's first land rush, but it was certainly one of its most colorful. When D. Davis's first two island developments near Tampa went on the market in October 1924, people lined up for 40 hours before the sale began. One man chained himself to the door so he wouldn't lose his place. Not only did the entire 875 acres, much of it still underwater, sell out for $18 million, but an additional $8.2 million was returned to eager buyers whose money had arrived too late.'"
Thursday, August 04, 2005
paul graham essay on blogs, work and open source
What Business Can Learn from Open Source:
.....................
.....................
"Most articles in the print media are boring. For example, the president notices that a majority of voters now think invading Iraq was a mistake, so he makes an address to the nation to drum up support. Where is the man bites dog in that? I didn't hear the speech, but I could probably tell you exactly what he said. A speech like that is, in the most literal sense, not news: there is nothing new in it. [3]
Nor is there anything new, except the names and places, in most 'news' about things going wrong. A child is abducted; there's a tornado; a ferry sinks; someone gets bitten by a shark; a small plane crashes. And what do you learn about the world from these stories? Absolutely nothing. They're outlying data points; what makes them gripping also makes them irrelevant."
.....................
.....................
"Next time you're in a moderately large city, drop by the main post office and watch the body language of the people working there. They have the same sullen resentment as children made to do something they don't want to. Their union has exacted pay increases and work restrictions that would have been the envy of previous generations of postal workers, and yet they don't seem any happier for it. It's demoralizing to be on the receiving end of a paternalistic relationship, no matter how cozy the terms. Just ask any teenager."
read whole essay-click here
.....................
.....................
"Most articles in the print media are boring. For example, the president notices that a majority of voters now think invading Iraq was a mistake, so he makes an address to the nation to drum up support. Where is the man bites dog in that? I didn't hear the speech, but I could probably tell you exactly what he said. A speech like that is, in the most literal sense, not news: there is nothing new in it. [3]
Nor is there anything new, except the names and places, in most 'news' about things going wrong. A child is abducted; there's a tornado; a ferry sinks; someone gets bitten by a shark; a small plane crashes. And what do you learn about the world from these stories? Absolutely nothing. They're outlying data points; what makes them gripping also makes them irrelevant."
.....................
.....................
"Next time you're in a moderately large city, drop by the main post office and watch the body language of the people working there. They have the same sullen resentment as children made to do something they don't want to. Their union has exacted pay increases and work restrictions that would have been the envy of previous generations of postal workers, and yet they don't seem any happier for it. It's demoralizing to be on the receiving end of a paternalistic relationship, no matter how cozy the terms. Just ask any teenager."
read whole essay-click here
Monday, August 01, 2005
FundAlarm - Lessons From Brain-Damaged Investor
FundAlarm - Highlights & Commentary - (Updated 1st of Each Month): "According to a recent research study, brain-damaged individuals performed better in a simple investment experiment than individuals with non-damaged brains.....Participants were given $20 and asked to bet on 20 rounds of coin tosses.....A win was worth $2.50, a loss cost only $1.00, and there was no cost for sitting out a round.....Since the odds of a win were always 50-50, it made logical sense to bet in every round.....As it turned out, individuals with damage to the emotional centers of their brains, but with otherwise normal intelligence, bet in 84% of the rounds, and ended up with higher average earnings than individuals with non-damaged brains (who bet in only 58% of the rounds).....It seems that the brain-damaged individuals didn't experience normal levels of financial fear and anxiety, while the non-damaged individuals tended to be influenced by the outcomes of previous rounds.
'Lessons From The Brain-Damaged Investor,' Jane Spencer, The Wall Street Journal, July 21, 2005
From the FundAlarm catalog of mutual fund merchandise:
Investment Mallet.
Hang on to your mutual funds through even the toughest bear market! Brain-damaged people show less investment fear, and ultimately make more money, so here's your chance to join this exclusive group. Specially designed for FundAlarm, this mallet is soft enough not to inflict a fatal head injury, yet hard enough to deactivate all relevant emotional centers. Detailed brain diagram included, so you're sure to hit just the right spots!
Item #OWWW
$19.95
"
'Lessons From The Brain-Damaged Investor,' Jane Spencer, The Wall Street Journal, July 21, 2005
From the FundAlarm catalog of mutual fund merchandise:
Investment Mallet.
Hang on to your mutual funds through even the toughest bear market! Brain-damaged people show less investment fear, and ultimately make more money, so here's your chance to join this exclusive group. Specially designed for FundAlarm, this mallet is soft enough not to inflict a fatal head injury, yet hard enough to deactivate all relevant emotional centers. Detailed brain diagram included, so you're sure to hit just the right spots!
Item #OWWW
$19.95
"
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