The Psy-Fi Blog: Forecasting A Financial Earthquake

Forecasting: "Financial forecasting is simply testimony to the relentless stupidity of human beings, who seem to be endlessly gullible. Without this gullibility the majority of the securities industry would collapse, because there’s virtually no evidence of any skill in forecasting from anyone."

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How Doctors Die - Slashdot

"Dr. Ken Murray, a Clinical Assistant Professor of Family Medicine at USC, writes that doctors don't die like the rest of us. What's unusual about doctors is not how much treatment they get when faced with death themselves, but how little. For all the time they spend fending off the deaths of others, they tend to be fairly serene when faced with death themselves because they know exactly what is going to happen, they know the choices, and they generally have access to any sort of medical care they could want. 'Almost all medical professionals have seen what we call "futile care" being performed on people,' writes Murray. 'What it buys is misery we would not inflict on a terrorist. I cannot count the number of times fellow physicians have told me, in words that vary only slightly, "Promise me if you find me like this that you'll kill me."' Feeding into the problem are unrealistic expectations of what doctors can accomplish. Many people think of CPR as a reliable lifesaver when, in fact, the results are usually poor. If a patient suffers from severe illness, old age, or a terminal disease, the odds of a good outcome from CPR are infinitesimal, while the odds of suffering are overwhelming."

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Diversity?

Bank Fraud Prosecution Continues to Drop under Obama

The Big Picture:

 Barry Ritholtz - November 16th, 2011, 11:45AM

In such a target rich environment, how on earth is it possible that Bank Fraud prosecutions are dropping? It is an outrage!"I bitched about this when George W. Bush was President, and I will continue until we get someone in the White House who understands what the RULE OF LAW actually means . . ."

Nice Threads

BALANCE SHEET RECESSION

Richard Koo:

The key difference between an ordinary recession and one that can produce a lost decade is that in the latter, a large portion of the private sector is actually minimizing debt instead of maximizing profits following the bursting of a nation-wide asset price bubble. When a debt-financed bubble bursts, asset prices collapse while liabilities remain, leaving millions of private sector balance sheets underwater. In order to regain their financial health and credit ratings, households and businesses are forced to repair their balance sheets by increasing savings or paying down debt. This act of deleveraging reduces aggregate demand and throws the economy into a very special type of recession.


http://pragcap.com/the-world-in-balance-sheet-recession

Happy Holidays

Teachers Don’t Like Creative Students

"One of the most consistent findings in educational studies of creativity has been that teachers dislike personality traits associated with creativity. Research has indicated that teachers prefer traits that seem to run counter to creativity, such as conformity and unquestioning acceptance of authority (e.g., Bachtold, 1974; Cropley, 1992; Dettmer, 1981; Getzels & Jackson, 1962; Torrance, 1963)."

‘Viagra in a Condom’

By Trista Kelley
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- A new condom that aims to enhance erections may also lift earnings and buyout prospects for unprofitable U.K. drugmaker Futura Medical Plc.

Durex condoms made by partner Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc will contain a dose of Futura’s Zanifil gel inside the tip, boosting blood flow within the penis. The product results in firmer, larger and longer-lasting erections for men who may find wearing condoms challenging.


“It’s essentially Viagra in a condom,” said Mahony, who owns shares of Guildford, England-based Futura. “I wouldn’t be surprised if Reckitt tries to either buy the whole company or buy that royalty stream out at some point.”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-10/-viagra-in-a-condom-may-make-futura-a-target-for-reckitt.html

The quick fox jumps through

From J. Ptak

http://longstreet.typepad.com/books/

Chocolate is love?

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Apple to Samsung: Don't Make Thin or Rectangular Smartphones !:)

Samsung could’ve avoided this lawsuit altogether if it had a square (or perhaps triangular or round) smartphone and tablet instead, chosen a color other than black for the front, and/or designed thicker devices with a more cluttered look instead.

U.S. District Court judge denied Apple’s request to halt sales of the competing Samsung products. The infringement issue was too close to call, the court ruled, despite Apple’s claim in its brief that Samsung had "so many different design choices" it could have used instead.

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Man exploits Man

"Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite."
Galbraith"

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