P.J. O'Rourke

If you say a modern celebrity is an adulterer, a pervert and a drug addict, all it means is that you've read his autobiography.

Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys.

Seriousness is stupidity sent to college.

The weirder you're going to behave, the more normal you should look. It works in reverse, too. When I see a kid with three or four rings in his nose, I know there is absolutely nothing extraordinary about that person.

I think I'll have a salad today.

Word salad is a string of words that vaguely resembles language, and may or may not be grammatically correct, but is utterly meaningless. An example of word salad would be:

"Tramway flogging into my question, it was thirty letters down under peanut butter."

The consequences of cheap

What happens when things get (nearly) free?" You waste them, be they transistors or megabytes of bandwidth capacity. You use them extravagantly, irresponsibly. You shift out of conservation mode and get into exploitation mode. You do crazy things like offering people the ability to put their whole music collection in their pocket, or promising the average email user that they'll never have to delete another message to conserve space. ...

about backtested models

You can always find a correlation between two sets of data if you have a computer look hard enough. Trouble is, you can as easily find a correlation between unrelated datasets ... (astrology, anyone?). If your algorithm (model) can’t make predictions, it’s worthless.

If it can make predictions, you test the predictions. Testing can easily falsify your model, but can’t actually prove it (a black swan could always show up in the next test). However, the more successful predictions a model makes, the more it makes sense to rely on it... provided ... the stuff you don’t put into your model isn't going to be important in the future .... (a big if).



http://blog.tomevslin.com/2007/10/backtested-mode.html


Example of problems with data mining: Children with big feet are definitely better spellers.
Can you figure out why?

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Exactly.......Wrong

A well-known American economist, drafted during World War II to work in the US Army meteorological service in England, got a phone call from a general in May 1944 asking for the weather forecast for Normandy in early June. The economist replied that it was impossible to forecast weather that far into the future. The general wholeheartedly agreed but nevertheless needed the number now for planning purposes.

Similar logic lies at the heart of the current crisis. Statistical modeling increasingly drives decision-making in the financial system while at the same time significant questions remain about model reliability.

The reason is that market participants react to measurements and therefore change the underlying statistical processes. The modellers are always playing catch-up with each other. This becomes especially pronounced when the financial system gets into a crisis.

This is endogenous risk, which emphasises the importance of interactions between institutions in determining market outcomes. Day-to-day, when everything is calm, we can ignore endogenous risk. In crisis, we cannot. And that is when the models fail.

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Easy in Principle

Mr. Buffett points out, investing is much like dieting: It is simple, but not easy. Everyone knows what it takes to lose weight. (Eat less, exercise more.) Nothing could be simpler, but few things are harder in a world full of chocolate cake and Cheetos.

A guide: what to complain about

1. When you don’t have any money, complain about hunger.
2. When you have money, complain about sex.
3. When you have food, sex and money, complain about your health.

Groucho for President

"Wives are people who feel they don't dance enough."

"I remember the first time I had sex - I kept the receipt."

"I find television very educating. Every time somebody turns on the set, I go into the other room and read a book."

"Before I speak, I have something important to say."

I mean Groucho not Karl

Too much government authority:
The $700 Billion rescue plan gives Treasury power unchecked by courts –
so who is overseeing the overseer? With all this economic, regulatory
and political power, do you think the government will easily give it up
- particularly under a pro-government control democratic
administration? Furthermore, if the government is so good at managing
debt, why do we already have the highest national debt in recorded
history? Joshua Rosner, an analyst at the independent research firm
Graham Fisher & Co. in New York, stated:

The
proposal is a clear abdication of all oversight and fiscal authorities
to a Secretary of Treasury that has bungled this crisis from the
beginning. This is Marxism. And I mean Groucho not Karl.

From Improbable Research site: Compared to What?

An Impartial Price Survey of Various Household Liquids as Compared to a Gallon of Gasoline

With the price of oil surging past $100 per barrel recently, consumers and the media in the United States have been in an uproar over the outrageous price of gasoline. In my opinion, however, they have failed to place this cost in context to other common, household liquids. Thus, I decided to perform an informal price survey.

I visited my local grocery store, where I recorded the prices and respective volumes of 22 off-the-shelf fluids. Then, after returning home, I computed the price per gallon of each item, and arranged them in ascending order by cost, as shown in Table 1.

New York Times: Political Contempt

Jonathan Haidt, an associate professor of moral psychology at the University of Virginia, argues in an essay this month, “What Makes People Vote Republican?”, that it’s liberals who are less open to other points of view.

Haidt has conducted research in which liberals and conservatives were asked to project themselves into the minds of their opponents and answer questions about their moral reasoning. Conservatives, he said, prove quite adept at thinking like liberals, but liberals are consistently incapable of understanding the conservative point of view. “Liberals feel contempt for the conservative moral view, and that is very, very angering. Republicans are good at exploiting that anger,” he told me in a phone interview.

http://warner.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/11/no-laughing-matter/index.html

Charitable Giving - Show me the money

The child of academics, raised in a liberal household, Arthur C. Brooks has written a book that concludes religious conservatives donate far more money than secular liberals to all sorts of charitable activities, irrespective of income.

He cites extensive data analysis to demonstrate that values advocated by conservatives -- from church attendance and two-parent families to the Protestant work ethic and a distaste for government-funded social services -- make conservatives more generous
than liberals.

The book is titled "Who Really Cares: The Surprising Truth About Compassionate Conservatism" (Basic Books, $26).

Harvey Mansfield, professor of government at Harvard University and 2004 recipient of the National Humanities Medal, does not know Brooks personally but has read the book. "His main finding is quite startling, that the people who talk the most about caring actually fork over the least," he said. "But beyond this finding I thought his analysis was extremely good, especially for an economist. He thinks very well about the reason for this and reflects about politics and morals in a way most economists do their best to avoid."

Lambert

The only motel in Lambert was the International Inn. Lambert was a thousand miles from any foreign country, but I suppose if you buy a place, you can name it whatever you like. I stayed at the motel in April, which was the slow season. In the evening, the owner became the bartender. He served drinks and told stories.

"In the 1920s, the original hotel on this land was a truck stop," he said. "The drivers needed to sleep and eat. The story goes the top floor was a brothel. The roads here get iced over in winter. One night in October there was a snow storm. With zero visibility, a restaurant supply truck skidded through the river bridge, ending up in the kitchen, starting a fire. The fire spread and the hotel burned down. A year and a half later, the hotel owner collected on the insurance. By then, the depression had hit and the owners decided not to reopen the hotel."

The Good Book

I stopped overnight at the Stay in Style Motel. The place was cheap; the rooms were clean, After I checked in, I walked outside by the parking lot and found a wooden bench. A guy was sitting at one end. His t shirt said "Jimbo." He looked up at me, nodded and pointed at the empty space. He said, "You're welcome to it."

I sat down. "Jimbo" perched at the edge of the bench whistling. He whistled four notes and then stopped. He turned to me and said, "What's your favorite book in the Bible?"

I said, “New or Old Testament?”

“Either one.”

I said, “I'm partial to Ecclesiastes.”

He thought a while and then started whistling those four notes and stopped.

I said, "If you don't mind me asking, who is the Jimbo on your t shirt?"

He said, "Oh, not me. Jimbo is my dad. He's been in Joliet Correctional since I was born. I'm going to see him soon and get him out of jail." He started whistling again. He finished the whole song.

Cowboys

The sign said Cowboy City, population 7539. I pulled into the Shell gas station and put ten gallons in the tank. I went inside the office to pay.

I said, "Is this Cowboy City?"

"Yes."

"Are there any Cowboys here?"

"No."

"Why was it named Cowboy?"

"The owner of the Read'em and Weep store thought it was a good idea."

"Who is the owner of the store?"

"That would be me."

"And your name is?"

"My name is Paul D. Depaul."

"Hard to pronounce, don't you think?"

"You think so? My original name was Qwerty."

"Qwerty?"

"My mother repaired typewriters. You know, Qwerty are the letters at the top of a keyboard. Mom was a prankster. She named my brother Palindrome. I think my father left because he couldn't take it. Puns for breakfast. Cryptograms for lunch. Anagrams for dinner."

Another Sunny Honeymoon

I was walking through the Botanical Gardens and came upon a wedding party.

The bride said, “All unmarried women prepare to catch the bouquet.”

A woman walked to the open space in front of the bride. She said, “I’m the only girl.” She looked at her boyfriend.

The bride said, “Maybe I should just hand you the flowers.”

“No, don't do that,” the woman said.

A young boy said, “I'll try to catch the flowers too.” The young boy jumped in front and caught the flowers, like he was intercepting a football pass. He stopped, looked at the flowers and dropped them on the ground.

The groom said, “Now, I’ll throw the garter.”

The boy said, “What's a garter?”

Bubba

On my walk around the lake, I saw a stone engraved with the word Bubba. I asked the caretaker about the marker.

"Bubba was a duck who thought he was a dog, " he said. "In 1994, I got this caretaker job. In the beginning, few people used the park, so I had plenty of free time. One day, I noticed a lone duck and fed him the leftovers from my lunch. After that, the duck followed me around like a puppy. I taught him basic obedience; he learned to sit, come and heel. People came to the park to see the duck do his tricks. As a joke, I named the duck Bubba.

"Then Bubba got old and died. I buried him behind the maintenance shack with a marker."

Parking Incident

In an unfamiliar part of town, I saw a prepay parking lot. I pulled the car into a space and walked over to the line at the machines. I waited my turn. After two minutes on the line, I punched in my parking space code, G7. The machine told me, "Space reserved."

A stranger said, "You'd better move your car."

I went back. A tow truck operator had picked up the car; the front end was eight feet in the air. The truck driver ignored my explanation; he insisted I pay eighty dollars cash to release the car. I was mad, but I gave him the cash.

He pulled out a form and said, "Sign this."

I said, "I'll sign it, if you will."

He said, "If you want your car, sign."

I signed and he gave me a copy of the ticket. I got my car back.

The next day I decided to write a letter. I didn't know where to write, so I looked on the ticket, but the only information was the name of the towing company. I made a few calls and found out that a nonprofit managed the parking lot. I called and spoke to a Mr. Walgreen. He said he was sorry; He sounded amused.

"Please write a letter describing the incident. We'll refund the money and speak to the towing company."

The next day, I mailed the letter and walked to town. One week later, I got a certified check for eighty dollars.

Buena Vista

Despite the name, the Buena Vista hotel had no vistas, good or bad. The building's construction predated air-conditioning; it had large porches and shade trees to keep the guests cool. The only telephones and TVs were in the lobby. Paintings by local eccentrics covered the walls and none of the furniture matched. The brochure at the front desk said, "If you're looking for a normal hotel, you're in the wrong place."

I asked the man at the front desk if they were serving lunch. He said yes and pointed to the right. I walked towards the smell of cooking and the sound of music.

I looked around the dining room and saw an elderly woman in a flower print dress, a waiter serving apple-pie ala mode and a large family eating fried catfish by the plateful.

 A middle-aged man was playing a spinet piano and taking song requests. At one point, all the people at one table joined him in singing the Yellow Rose of Texas.

And the food was good.

Dr. Pumpernickel

Bob and I were killing time at the Buddha Bagel. The shop used to be called The NY Bagel and Deli. The new owner got rid of the Yankee memorabilia and NYC Subway maps on the walls and put up pictures of fat smiling Buddhas.

I said, "Do you know anything about the original owner of this place?"

Bob knew everything or he claimed he did. He said, "Doctor Pumpernickel was the first owner. Pumpernickel said he had a biochemistry degree from the University of Dortmund. The bagels were really fine. On Sundays, people leaving church headed to the bakery. While waiting on line, the customers sang hymns."

"The trouble was Pumpernickel started making medical claims. First was weight loss, then super energy. The problems really started with the New Age No Age bagel. Some local doctors complained. The local food inspectors warned Pumpernickel to stop making medical claims or spend a year in the prison bakery.

"Pumpernickel sold the store and left town."

Curiosity Shop

Exploring Asheville, I found the Cull De Sac Curiosity Shop. Inside were postcard reproductions of 1920s era Soviet graphics, faded photographs of charlatans and ornate maps of Eastern Europe. I picked out four cards and brought them to the cash register.

I said to the owner, "I'll buy these four cards." He looked at me as though no one had ever bought anything in the store before. I offered a five-dollar bill. He looked annoyed and walked away. I said, "I'll just take another card and leave five dollars." He came back and said, "No, nyet, nein." He gave me a dollar bill in change and disappeared into the back room.

Lake City

I got off the interstate at Lake City. The AAA guide recommended the historic De Soto for lunch. The De Soto was a restored drug store with a soda fountain, marble counters and those old fashioned pumps and electric mixers. They served milk shakes, banana splits and ice-cream sodas. Also, Lake City is a timber harvesting hub and a manufacturing center for mobile homes. So if you ever wake up at three in the morning and need an ice-cream soda, a mobile home, or a large dead tree, now you know where to go.