Monday, December 31, 2012

Remember when agents said that real estate only goes up!?

Remember when agents said that real estate only goes up!?




A financial bubble is a temporary situation where asset prices become elevated beyond any realistic fundamental valuations because the general public believes current pricing is justified by probable future price increases. If this belief is widespread enough to cause significant numbers of people to purchase the asset at inflated prices, then prices will continue to rise. This will convince even more people that prices will continue to rise. This facilitates even more buying. Once initiated, this reaction is self-sustaining, and the phenomenon is entirely psychological. When the pool of buyers is exhausted and the volume of buying declines, prices stop rising; the belief in future price increases diminishes. When the remaining potential buyers no longer believe in future price increases, the primary motivating factor to purchase is eliminated; prices fall. The temporary rise and fall of asset prices is the defining characteristic of a bubble.

The bubble mentality is summed up in three typical beliefs:
The expectation of future price increases.
The belief that prices cannot fall.
The worry that failure to buy now will result in permanent inability to obtain the asset.

The Great Housing Bubble was characterized by the acceptance of these beliefs by the general public, and the exploitation of these beliefs by the entire real estate industrial complex, particularly the sales mechanism of the National Association of Realtors.

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Avalanche of Boomers May Bury Social Security

Avalanche of Boomers May Bury Social Security - Yahoo! Finance: "Timothy Harris, a principal at Milliman and author of “Living to 100 and Beyond,” had this to say: “We’ve seen the economic and social turmoil in Europe where countries have promised more to their populations than they can deliver,” he said, making reference to a recent article in The Atlantic. “As I was doing research for my “Living to 100 and Beyond” book, I kept wondering how European countries were able to afford the retirement and health programs that were on their books. Apparently they weren’t.”"


Friday, December 28, 2012

Krampus or Santa?




Krampus is part of Austrian and Hungarian folklore and is associated with Christmas. His name, taken from the Germanic Krampen means claw. Krampus looks like and acts like the devil. He is a demon that travels with Saint Nickolas on Christmas Eve and while Santa delivers candies and treats to the good little children, Krampus delivers corporal punishment and horror to the bad little children. He provides a little extra incentive for the children to be good. Apparently in Austria, not getting presents wasn't enough to motivate children. Satan himself had to beat the children with willow branches and carry them off to hell. I think it would take about this much incentive to get my boys to stop fighting on a nightly basis, so they might be on to something.

Monday, December 24, 2012

Brass Doorknobs Could Stop The Spread Of Superbugs

Brass door knobs, handles and handrails should be brought back into common use in public places to help combat superbugs, according to scientists.
Researchers have discovered that copper and alloys made from the metal, including brass, can prevent antibiotic resistance in bacteria from spreading.
Plastic and stainless steel surfaces, which are now widely used in hospitals and public settings, allow bacteria to survive and spread when people touch them.
Even if the bacteria die, DNA that gives them resistance to antibiotics can survive and be passed on to other bacteria on these surfaces. Copper and brass, however, can kill the bacteria and also destroy this DNA.

http://www.businessinsider.com/brass-fixtures-halt-spread-of-superbugs-2012-12

Sunday, December 23, 2012

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

People place too much faith in their intuition

Question That Harvard Students Get Wrong - Business Insider:

Havard students get near-perfect SAT scores. . So they shouldn't have trouble with a simple logic question, right?

Try the following puzzle:
A bat and ball cost $1.10.
The bat costs one dollar more than the ball.
How much does the ball cost?
Click on link for the answer.

http://www.businessinsider.com/question-that-harvard-students-get-wrong-2012-12



Risk and Uncertainty


Risk: We don’t know what is going to happen next, but we do know what the distribution looks like.

Uncertainty: We don’t know what is going to happen next, and we do not know what the possible distribution looks like.

rearranging the deck chairs on the USS Titanic

 ZeroHedge:
"Arguing on whether the 2013 deficit will be $800 million or $1.2 trillion is wasted breath. It is still a deficit. Cutting spending does not mean you only increase the budget over the prior year by $700 billion instead of $900 billion. Until lawmakers can make voters understand the math of ever increasing spending and the disaster that is headed our way, they are just rearranging the deck chairs on the USS Titanic."


Monday, December 10, 2012

"If Hitler invaded Hell, I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons."


Lady Nancy Astor: Winston, if I were your wife, I’d poison your tea.
Churchill: Nancy, if I were your husband, I’d drink it.

Bessie Braddock: Sir, you are drunk.
Churchill: And you, madam, are ugly. But in the morning, I shall be sober. You, however, will still be ugly.

Churchill: Madam, would you sleep with me for five million pounds?
Socialite: My goodness, Mr. Churchill… Well, I suppose… we would have to discuss terms, of course…
Churchill: Would you sleep with me for five pounds?
Socialite: Mr. Churchill, what kind of woman do you think I am?!
Churchill: Madam, we’ve already established that. Now we are haggling about the price.

Sunday, December 09, 2012

Dog drives car - "insists on driving with head out of window."

Driving Dogs Picture


  • The Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals in Auckland, New Zealand is teaching rescue dogs how to drive in an effort to show their intelligence and potential — and garnering worldwide attention for the stunt.
  • Three shelter dogs, including a giant schnauzer, will show off their driving skills behind the wheel of a Mini Countryman in a TV broadcast next week.
  • David Letterman spent part of his show Wednesday offering the Top 10 Signs Your Dog Is A Bad Driver.


Saturday, December 08, 2012

Empty Words and Phrases


  • Creative
  • Organizational
  • Effective
  • Motivated
  • Extensive Experience
  • Track Record
  • Innovative
  • Responsible
  • Analytical
  • Problem Solving
  • Communication skills
  • Dynamic

Far away ...



Thursday, November 29, 2012

Unwarranted dogmatism

Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change:


Unwarranted dogmatism has taken over in many fields of science: in Big-Bang cosmology, dinosaur extinction, theory of smell, string theory, Alzheimer’s amyloid theory, specificity and efficacy of psychotropic drugs, cold fusion, second-hand smoke, continental drift . . . The list goes on and on.

Dissenting views are dismissed without further ado, and dissenters’ careers are badly affected. Where public policy is involved — as with human-caused global warming and HIV/AIDS — the excommunication and harassment of dissenters reaches a fever pitch with charges of “denialism” and “denialists”, a deliberate ploy of association with the no-no of Holocaust denying.


Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Three Quotes



"Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats."

H L Mencken




"There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it."
Oscar Wilde


"Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player, that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more; it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

William Shakespeare

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Hit & Run :Reason.com

FBI Shoots Up House of Unarmed People 


An FBI SWAT team stormed a family home in District Heights, Maryland, yesterday at 6 a.m.

Agents fired at an unarmed 18-year-old woman in what appears to have been a no-knock raid.

  Via ABC 7:
“They almost hit my daughter, man,” says Emory Hughley. “If I hadn’t told her to go back in her room they probably would have shot her.”

Monday, November 26, 2012

Mammograms barely lower death rate, lead to many wrong diagnoses

Washington Post

The growing use of routine mammograms over the past 30 years has done little to lower the death rate from breast cancer but has sharply increased the number of women who are wrongly diagnosed with the disease, a new study reported.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/2012/11/21/269fc076-33f0-11e2-bb9b-288a310849ee_story.html

Orwell on Limousine Liberalism

Orwell quote:

All left-wing parties in the highly industrialized countries are at bottom a sham, because they make it their business to fight against something which they do not really wish to destroy. They have internationalist aims, and at the same time they struggle to keep up a standard of life with which those aims are incompatible. We all live by robbing Asiatic coolies, and those of us who are "enlightened" all maintain that those coolies ought to be set free; but our standard of living, and hence our "enlightenment," demands that the robbery shall continue. 




Sunday, November 25, 2012

51 Over-Used Adverbs, Nouns, and Clichés in Writing

Over-Used Adverbs, Nouns, and Clichés in Writing:


Over-Used Adjectives in Writing

A noun is a person, place, or thing – and an adjective should describe the noun in more detail (eg, “successful writers”). Some writing teachers say that adjectives are wholly unnecessary, while others advise writers to use sparingly. It’s up to you.
  1. Many
  2. Pretty
  3. Nice
  4. Kind
  5. Pleasant
  6. Tall/short/fat/skinny
  7. Big/little
  8. Shimmering
  9. Absolutely
  10. Same exact
  11. Truly unique
  12. Quite
  13. Funny
  14. Many
  15. Incredible
  16. A lot
  17. Bad/good
  18. Roaring
  19. Interesting
  20. Amazing
  21. Any


In Japan, Adult Diapers Sales Exceed Babies Diapers

ZeroHedge:

Franco Modigliani won the Nobel Prize in Economics 1985, partly for his “life cycle hypothesis“, which states that spending and savings patterns are predictable and largely a function of age demographics. In other words, Modigliani’s hypothesis is basically that age demographics largely determine the health and robustness of an economy.
...............................
Specifically ... the basic health of any country’s economy is largely driven by the number of its citizens who are in their peak spending years (39-43 year olds).

Saturday, November 24, 2012

So you want to simplify the tax code . . .


What are you going to get rid of?
Are you going to eliminate the incentive to provide employers health insurance? Are you going to get rid of charitable deductions or pension contribution deductions? What about dinging the child credit or mortgage interest? Or how about clipping Social Security benefits for retired workers?

Good luck to the politician that votes to eliminates any of these. 


http://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-20-tax-expenditures-2012-11

Weegee

Friday, November 23, 2012

Top 5 Ways To Get Pulled Over by the Cops - Edmunds.com

Top 5 Ways To Get Pulled Over by the Cops - Edmunds.com: "CHP officer McElroy says he sees people who apparently have forgotten they're driving cars: They're busy shaving, eating and even changing clothes. And what exactly is the violation you're committing when you're changing clothes in a car? "Unsafe speed," he says. "There is no safe speed for pulling a shirt off over your head while driving.""

'via Blog this'

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Epictetus


"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows."

"There is only one way to happiness and that is to cease worrying about things which are beyond the power of our will."

'If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid."

Epictetus

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Nonsense paper accepted by mathematics journal

Nonsense paper accepted by mathematics journal: "Each of these sentences [of the paper] contains mathematical nouns linked by the verbs mathematicians use, but the sentences scarcely connect with each other. The paper was created using Mathgen, an online random maths paper generator. Mathgen has a set of rules that define how papers are arranged in sections and what kinds of sentence make up a section and how those sentences are made up from different categories of technical and non-technical words. It creates beautifully formatted papers with the conventional structure, complete with equations and citations but, alas, totally devoid of meaning. Nate Eldredge – the blogger behind That’s Mathematics! – wrote Mathgen by adapting SCIgen, which does something similar for computer science. Papers generated by SCIgen have been accepted for publication at academic conferences and journals that claim to carry out peer review."

'via Blog this'

Friday, November 16, 2012

Bankrupt: Twinkies and Dingdongs


Hostess Brands, the company better known as the maker of Butternut, Ding Dongs, Dolly Madison, Drake's, Home Pride, Ho Hos, Hostess, Merita, Nature's Pride, and of course Wonder Bread and Twinkies has just made a liquidation filing.

". . .the labor unions representing 18,000 workers fought the company, and the unions won... A very pyrrhic victory. Sadly, they are all now out of a job as the unionized victory just happened to lead to the terminal winddown of their employer.

As to the future of the iconic brands, fear not: Hostess' numerous brands will be bought in a stalking horse auction by willing private buyers, however completely free and clear of all legacy labor and pension agreements which ultimately led to the company's liquidation."

Experience Teaches Effectually, But Brutally.

Malinvestment

"The danger here, as we have seen in every other bust for a century or more, is that we can only suspend the laws of economics for so long. And in general we are only good at considering immediate consequences, while being very, very bad at considering later consequences. As 19th century French economist Frédéric Bastiat observed, 'The bad economist pursues a small present good, which will be followed by a great evil to come, while the true economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil.' "

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Unintended Consequences of Obamacare


'. . . took my son to a dermatologist appointment last week. Insurance was balking, so we thought we’d have to cough up the $930 originally quoted. Turns out the cash price is $150…
Unintended consequences of Obamacare will reverberate through the economy for decades. In an extremely negative way."

Take that Apple: Samsung Hikes Apple Component Price By 20%

"The paradox here is that AAPL's victory is quite pyrrhic: if and when Samsung feels sufficiently threatened, it can just pull a Gazprom and halt the supply of mission critical components to the world's biggest publicly traded company." Naturally, the hyperbolic all out response would mean an immediate nuclear war of attrition between the two electronics giants. Instead Samsung would be even better served to show Apple who is boss in quantized increments. Today, it has done just that, forcing Apple to swallow a 20% price increase on hundreds of millions of Samsung application processors used in iPads and iPhones. "Apple first disapproved it, but finding no replacement supplier, it accepted the (increase.)" Game, set, match Samsung."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-12/samsung-hikes-apple-component-price-20

Monday, November 12, 2012

Obama victory infuriates Pakistani drone victims

"The same person who attacked my home has gotten re-elected," he told Reuters in the capital, Islamabad, where he fled after the attack on his village in South Waziristan, one of several ethnic Pashtun tribal areas on the Afghan border.

"Since yesterday, the pressure on my brain has increased. I remember all of the pain again."

In his re-election campaign, Obama gave no indication he would halt or alter the drone program, which he embraced in his first term to kill al Qaeda and Taliban militants in Pakistan and Afghanistan without risking American lives.

Drone strikes are highly unpopular among many Pakistanis, who consider them a violation of sovereignty that cause unacceptable civilian casualties.

"Whenever he has a chance, Obama will bite Muslims like a snake. Look at how many people he has killed with drone attacks," said Haji Abdul Jabar, whose 23-year-old son was killed in such a bombing.

Analysts say anger over the unmanned aircraft may have helped the Taliban gain recruits, complicating efforts to stabilize the unruly border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan. That could also hinder Obama's plan to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 2014.

Job candidate tells Bloomberg to ‘take this job and ….. ..’ over global warming cover | Watts Up With That?

‘take this job and ….. ..’ :

Dear Sir / Madam,
I write regarding my cancellation of attendance at the ‘Bloomberg Assessment Test’ . . . I wanted to communicate my reasons for doing so. 
 ‘Bloomberg Business Week’ – published a highly misleading article, leading on the front page – ‘It’s Global Warming, Stupid’ . . .   

 . . . Josh Tyrangiel tweeting that same day, presumably to ramp up sales of this particular issue that, “Our cover story this week may generate controversy, but only among the stupid.”  This is not language becoming of the editor of a major mainstream news publication and solidifies my opinion that BBW is an outlet for propaganda, rhetoric and schoolboy level insults, not a publication to be taken seriously – especially for anyone who works in the business world needing facts . . . . not only are the claims of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming highly uncertain . . .  but that even many of the experts who stand behind alarming claims made regarding the latter disputed any feasible links to Hurricane Sandy.
...................

If Bloomberg is willing to tolerate publication of work that is nothing but insulting propaganda . . . I do not wish to be associated with it.
Yours sincerely,
Danny Weston
University of Greenwich



'via Blog this'

Friday, November 09, 2012

Apple's Laughable New iPad Patent

From  The Absurdity Of Our Patent System:

Earlier this week, Apple got a bunch of new patents approved, including one covering the "design" of the original iPad.

What does this "design" patent cover?"

For the last few decades, the idea of tablet computers has often been discussed. Several companies have created prototypes. As far as I can remember, all of these prototypes were rectangles with rounded corners. (Do you remember a triangle-shaped one? Maybe a disk? Neither do I). Sharp corners, meanwhile, could potentially hurt consumers, so of course intelligent designers will round them.

But now Apple has been given a patent for the iPad design that includes its rectangular shape and rounded corners.

You can't make this stuff up.:)



Machiavelli on Political Cycles

 ZeroHedge: "Machiavelli accounts for this 'repetitive' oscillation by arguing that virtù (valor and political effectiveness) produces peace, peace brings idleness (ozio), idleness disorder, and disorder rovina (ruin). In turn, from rovina springs order, from order virtù, and from this, glory and good fortune."

'via Blog this'

Thursday, November 08, 2012

Why Warren Buffett plays bridge



Aside from an affection for cheeseburgers and cherry Coke, one of the personal facts commonly known about Warren Buffett is his love of bridge, which he periodically plays online with Bill Gates.

Why bridge? Though Graham wasn't talking about Buffett at the time, he offers a clue:

I recall to those of you who are bridge players the emphasis that bridge experts place on playing a hand right rather than on playing it successfully. Because, as you know, if you play it right you are going to make money and if you play it wrong you lose money – in the long run. There is a beautiful little story about the man who was the weaker bridge player of the husband-and-wife team. It seems he bid a grand slam, and at the end he said very triumphantly to his wife ‘I saw you making faces at me all the time, but you notice I not only bid this grand slam but I made it. What can you say about that?' And his wife replied very dourly, ‘If you had played it right you would have lost it.'

It seems to me (and it has certainly been my experience) that it takes an enormous amount of restraint to focus on playing every investment hand “right,” according to an established discipline, allowing the law of averages to work in your favor, rather than trying to win every hand. I would guess that this is exactly what appeals to Warren Buffett's temperament. Over the long-term, good investing requires it.

Wednesday, November 07, 2012

European Growth Estimates Cut

globaleconomicanalysis

The European Commission economists are not in the "forecasting business". They are in the "confidence building" business. As such, it is their duty to "forecast" growth, even if it is obvious that their "forecast" is ridiculous.





Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Effective Writing | PickTheBrain | Motivation and Self Improvement

Effective Writing: "When Hemingway was criticized by Faulkner for his limited word choice he replied: Poor Faulkner. Does he really think big emotions come from big words? He thinks I don’t know the ten-dollar words. I know them all right. But there are older and simpler and better words, and those are the ones I use."

'via Blog this'

Monday, November 05, 2012

Apple hides 2nd Samsung apology on UK site so it can’t be seen without scrolling

Apple hides Samsung apology on its UK site so it can’t be seen without scrolling : "The company has already enraged the judge once with its first cheeky apology to Samsung. It’s difficult to say what the judge will make of this most recent change, but if he finds out, I can’t see him being pleased."

'via Blog this'

Yardeni on Tuition Inflation

Business Insider: "If you are looking for out-of-control inflation, look no further than the college and hospital next door in the US. The CPI data show that college tuition and fees have increased 1,036% since January 1979 vs. 546% for Medical Care Goods & Services vs. 238% for the overall CPI. In other words, college costs have more than quadrupled relative to the CPI over this period, while Medical Care has more than doubled relative to the CPI. "

'via Blog this'

Friday, November 02, 2012

Apple will have to apologise for its apology


Apple will have to apologise for its apology as well its patent infringement claims against Samsung when it publishes a statement on its UK website tomorrow.

The three sentence statement that Apple will have to display on its homepage will say:
On 25th October 2012, Apple Inc published a statement on its UK website in relation to Samsung's Galaxy tablet. That statement was inaccurate and did not comply with the order of the Court Appeal of England and Wales. A correct statement can be found at this link.

Samsung had complained that the initial apology which ran on the UK homepage last week did not comply with the spirit of the court order, and judges yesterday morning agreed with them

It would be up to Samsung to allege contempt of court if they wished to.

Will Rogers



An economist's guess is liable to be as good as anybody else's.

Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.

There is nothing so stupid as the educated man if you get him off the thing he was educated in.

It's not what you pay a man, but what he costs you that counts.






Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Thank your mother in law.

From the Register website:

Wonder why you live longer than a chimp?:

Hawkes and colleagues of hers have long sought to advance their theory of grandmothering, which goes roughly like this. In the remote past, the common ancestral mothers of humans and great apes couldn't generally move on to have another child until their most recent nipper was no longer breast-feeding (breast feeding acts as a contraceptive, in order to prevent a mother being overburdened with children she can't support).


This could take quite a long time, much longer than it now does, as the infants need to be quite old before they can feed themselves and generally in an ape-man tribe nobody else was going to get hold of suitable food - for instance by digging up suitable root veg etc - and feed it to them.
Back then, female apes would generally die once they were past childbearing age: but naturally a few genetically different individuals might live on for longer. According to Hawkes and her colleagues, these older ape ladies in many cases would get hold of suitable infant food and pitch in to help feed their descendants. The nippers would thus be weaned earlier, allowing their mothers to have another child sooner, so spreading the grandma's unusual long-life genes faster and conferring an evolutionary advantage.


'via Blog this'

Monday, October 29, 2012

Physicians are overpaid

Simple, doctors are overpaid:
By Rin   Follow


I think it's time that we stop the lies and admit the truth, doctors are simply overpaid. GPs are at ~$150K while specialists and surgical specialists are from $200K to $500K. Most engineers and scientists simply do not have sustainable salaries of that amount "\
..............

Yes, there's no free market, in terms of supply, in the field of medicine. Here's my solution, if one can score a 30 or higher on the MCAT, he/she should be able to transfer into the clinical years of an MD program, typically into year number 3.
'via Blog this'

Saturday, October 27, 2012

One jelly donut is a fine thing, 35 jelly donuts are not

David Einhorn-

"We have just spent 15 years learning that a policy of creating asset bubbles is a bad idea, so it is hard to imagine why the Fed wants to create another one"

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Quotes of Norman Augustine

1. A hungry dog hunts best. A hungrier dog hunts even better.

2. A recent government publication on the marketing of cabbage contains, according to one report, 26,941 words. It is noteworthy in this regard that the Gettysburg Address contains a mere 279 words while the Lord's Prayer comprises but 67.

3. All too many consultants, when asked, 'What is 2 and 2?' respond, 'What do you have in mind?'

Norman Augustine,
Retired chairman and CEO
Lockheed Martin Corp.

http://www.wsu.edu/augustine/quotes.html

Monday, October 22, 2012

Italian experts convicted of manslaughter over deadly 2009 quake



Defying assertions that earthquakes cannot be predicted, an Italian court convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter Monday for failing to adequately warn residents before a temblor struck central Italy in 2009 and killed more than 300 people.
The court in L'Aquila also sentenced the defendants to six years each in prison. All are members of the national Great Risks Commission, and several are prominent scientists or geological and disaster experts.
Scientists had decried the trial as ridiculous, contending that science has no reliable way of predicting earthquakes. So news of the verdict shook the tightknit community of earthquake experts worldwide.
"It's a sad day for science," said seismologist Susan Hough, of the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena, Calif. "It's unsettling." That fellow seismic experts in Italy were singled out in the case "hits you in the gut," Hough added.



'via Blog this'

Friday, October 19, 2012

Green Jobs Wilt

 "Workers at an LG Chem plant in Holland, Michigan have already been put on furlough before a single battery has come off the line. Workers have three weeks of paid “work”, and one week off unpaid at the $300 million plant.
As early as 2010, the Holland plant was touted by President Obama as the return of manufacturing jobs to America, and green ones at that. The facility was estimated have produced 15,000 batteries a year and added hundreds of jobs. So far, 200 workers are being paid to do nothing."


http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/10/workers-at-lg-chem-plant-on-furlough-as-green-jobs-wilt/
'via Blog this'

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

France's Hollande Wants To Ban Homework

Business Insider:

French president pushing homework ban as part of education reforms. Reason for the homework ban?

Francois Hollande doesn’t think it is fair that some kids get homework help from their parents while children who come from disadvantaged families don’t.

Does everyone have an air conditioner who arguably needs one? If not, is the solution to ban them?

If you were looking for further proof that Hollande was a socialist nut case, now you have it.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Why A Balanced Budget Is Impossible In America

ZeroHedge: "If the US government cut all government services except Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest payments, federal spending would still outpace revenues. "

'via Blog this'

Monday, October 15, 2012

Rosenhan experiment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Rosenhan experiment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: "


St. Elizabeths psychiatric hospital, Washington, D.C., one of the sites of the Rosenhan experiment
The Rosenhan experiment was an experiment into the validity of psychiatric diagnosis conducted
by psychologist David Rosenhan in 1973. It was published in the journal Science under the title
"On being sane in insane places."[1]The study is considered an important and influential criticism
of psychiatric diagnosis.[2]
Rosenhan's study was done in two parts. The first part involved the use of healthy associates or "pseudopatients" (three women and five men) who briefly simulated auditory hallucinations in an attempt to gain admission to 12 different psychiatric hospitals in five different states in various locations in the United States. All were admitted and diagnosed with psychiatric disorders. After admission, the pseudopatients acted normally and told staff that they felt fine and had not experienced any more hallucinations. Hospital staff failed to detect a single pseudopatient, and instead believed that all of the pseudopatients exhibited symptoms of ongoing mental illness. Several were confined for months. All were forced to admit to having a mental illness and agree to take antipsychotic drugs as a condition of their release. The second part involved an offended hospital challenging Rosenhan to send pseudopatients to its facility, whom its staff would then detect. Rosenhan agreed and in the following weeks out of 193 new patients the staff identified 41 as potential pseudopatients, with 19 of these receiving suspicion from at least 1 psychiatrist and 1 other staff member. In fact Rosenhan had sent no-one to the hospital.The study concluded:

It is clear that we cannot distinguish the sane from the insane in psychiatric hospitals and also illustrated the dangers of dehumanization and labelling in psychiatric institutions. It suggested that the use of community mental health facilities which concentrated on specific problems and behaviors rather than psychiatric labels might be a solution and recommended education to make psychiatric workers more aware of the social psychology of their facilities.

'via Blog this'

Sunday, October 14, 2012

The Skeptic's Dictionary

The Skeptic's Dictionary: Mayan prophecy 2012

In a nutshell: The Mayan prophecy for 2012 is something made up by people who don't know much about the Maya. The Maya didn't predict anything, much less the end of the world.

The Maya had several calendars and one of them starts over in 2012. Some people think this means they predicted the end of the world. Why? I don't know. Maybe they like to scare people. The Maya didn't predict the end of the world. But even if they did, so what? The Maya couldn't even predict the end of their own civilization, which collapsed over one thousand years ago.

'via Blog this'

Christmas Gift Idea: Pickle has an on/off switch.


Yodeling Pickle Ornament

While some say the Germans are the ones who came up with this tradition, people in Germany have never heard of it. Let's not let the implausibility of a tradition prevent us from having fun with it. Our plastic Yodeling Pickle Ornament is not a only sanitary alternative to an actual pickle, it is also equipped with a motion detector that goes off whenever someone gets within about 3 feet of it. You can set up the plastic, 4-1/2" tall ornament near the presents to act as an alarm when someone snoops. Buy a bunch of them and you'll have a chorus of yodels whenever someone walks past your tree.  Pickle has an on/off switch. Endorsed by Santa Pickle.


http://mcphee.com/shop/lucky-yodelling-christmas-pickle-ornament.html

Dr. S. O. Teric does not profit from any sales of this item.

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Ryan has a bad plan, Biden has no plan at all.



Before 2016 the SS Disability Fund will run dry. They next administration has to confront this reality. A fix is required in less than 36 months. There is a gun to your head for action Joe. You have two choices. Raise taxes or cut DI benefits. Which one is it? You can’t hide under a rock for another four years, so what are you going to do?
The retirement side of SS will run off the cliff in 20 years according to the CBO. But that estimate is off the mark. It is not possible to run the SS Trust Fund to zero; a minimum of one-year’s worth of benefits has to be retained as a minimum reserve. Over the next decade there will be at least one recession, when that happens the SS death spiral will be advanced by five or so years (as it was from the 08 blowout). The reality is that the SS drop dead date is closer to ten-years away from today.

The Medicalization of Rebellion


The Medicalization of Rebellion

In our scientific age, many people find scientism, the application of the concepts and techniques of the hard sciences to persons and economic/social phenomena, comforting. In truth it is dehumanization in the name of health.
Szasz, a prolific author who celebrated his 92nd birthday earlier this week, writes,
People do not have to be told that malaria and melanoma are diseases. They know they are. But people have to be told, and are told over and over again, that alcoholism and depression are diseases. Why? Because people know that they are not diseases, that mental illnesses are not “like other illnesses,” that mental hospitals are not like other hospitals, that the business of psychiatry is control and coercion, not care or cure. Accordingly, medicalizers engage in a never-ending task of “educating” people that nondiseases are diseases.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

The Mathematicization Of Economics-a bad development


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-11/guest-post-mathematicization-economics


The Mathematicization Of Economics

If one thing has changed in the last one hundred years in economics it has been the huge outgrowth in the usage of mathematics:

This is largely a bad development, for a number of reasons.

First of all layers of mathematics acts as a barrier to public understanding. While mathematics is a useful language for communicating complex ideas, those without training in mathematics will struggle to grasp what an author is trying to communicate if a paper consists mostly of equations untranslated into English. This is bad practice; it is easier to baffle with bullshit in an unfamiliar language than it is in plain English.

Second, mathematical models are always simplifications. Human action and economic behaviour is complex and unpredictable. While mathematical models can sometimes approximate a pattern quite well and so have some limited uses as toys, the complexity of human behaviour means that there are always unmodelled variables that can throw off a model’s output. Over-reliance upon or excessive faith in mathematical models can lead to bad forecasting and bad policy decisions. The grand theoretical-mathematical approach to economics is fundamentally flawed.

Third, attempting to smudge the human reality of economics into cold mathematical shackles is degenerative. Economics is a human subject. Human behaviour is not mechanical, it is not mechanistic. Physicists can very accurately model the trajectories of rocks in space. But economists cannot accurately model the trajectories of prices, employment and interest rates down on the rocky ground.

Economics would benefit from self-restraint in regard to the usage of mathematics.

Monday, October 01, 2012

Postal Service Defaults on a $5.6 Billion Benefits Payment - NYTimes.com

Postal Service Defaults on a $5.6 Billion Benefits Payment - NYTimes.com: "WASHINGTON — The Postal Service sank deeper into debt on Monday after the agency defaulted on a $5.6 billion payment due at the end of September, the second time it has missed a deadline this year to set aside money for its future retiree health benefits."

'via Blog this'

Saturday, September 29, 2012

The president decides to stick with ‘climatism’

Watts Up With That?: "The theory of man made global warming claims that carbon dioxide, not carbon, causes climate change. Carbon dioxide is an invisible gas, while carbon is a black solid. Referring to carbon dioxide as “carbon” is as foolish as calling water “hydrogen” or salt “chlorine.” Compounds have totally different properties than their composing elements. Neither is carbon dioxide pollution. It’s an odorless, harmless gas that green plants need for photosynthesis. Carbon dioxide is a foundation for life on Earth along with oxygen and water."

'via Blog this'

Friday, September 28, 2012

Romney Is Avoiding Estate Taxes. So What?

We shouldn't expect rich people to pass on perfectly legal opportunities to avoid taxes, any more than we would expect middle-class people to do so. And we shouldn't expect to make transfer taxes work well given their long-standing track record of being ripe for avoidance. We should find a way to tax Mitt Romney, and others like him, without waiting around for them to transfer their assets.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-28/romney-is-avoiding-estate-taxes-so-what-.html

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Apple Says Scratching on New Aluminum iPhone 5 is Normal

Apple Says Scratching on New Aluminum iPhone 5 is Normal: ""Any aluminum product may scratch or chip with use, exposing its natural silver color. That is normal," he's quoted as saying.

What Schiller doesn't address is the fact that some phones are arriving with scratches or scuffs. While aluminum does scratch very easily, it goes without saying that if you're shelling out hundreds of dollars for the iPhone 5, your brand new smartphone should arrive in pristine condition. "

'via Blog this'

Sunday, September 23, 2012

“The Drugs Don’t Work”: How the Medical-Industrial Complex Systematically Suppresses Negative Studies « naked capitalism

naked capitalism:

We’ve written a lot about the scientism of mainstream economics, both here and in ECONNED, and how these trappings have let the discipline continue to have a special seat at the policy table despite ample evidence of its failure. As bad as this is, it pales in comparison to the overt corruption of science at work in the drug arena. Although this issue comes to light from time to time, often in the context of litigation, the lay public is largely ignorant of how systematic and pervasive the efforts are to undermine good research practice in order to foist more, expensive, and sometimes dangerous drugs onto patients.


Ben Goldacre, a British doctor and science writer, provides a short overview of one of the worst scams practiced by Big Pharma: that of suppressing negative research, in a new piece at the Guardian (hat tip John l). This is the overview:
Drugs are tested by the people who manufacture them, in poorly designed trials, on hopelessly small numbers of weird, unrepresentative patients, and analysed using techniques that are flawed by design, in such a way that they exaggerate the benefits of treatments. Unsurprisingly, these trials tend to produce results that favour the manufacturer. When trials throw up results that companies don’t like, they are perfectly entitled to hide them from doctors and patients, so we only ever see a distorted picture of any drug’s true effects. Regulators see most of the trial data, but only from early on in a drug’s life, and even then they don’t give this data to doctors or patients, or even to other parts of government. This distorted evidence is then communicated and applied in a distorted fashion.

In their 40 years of practice after leaving medical school, doctors hear about what works ad hoc, from sales reps, colleagues and journals. But those colleagues can be in the pay of drug companies – often undisclosed – and the journals are, too. And so are the patient groups. And finally, academic papers, which everyone thinks of as objective, are often covertly planned and written by people who work directly for the companies, without disclosure. Sometimes whole academic journals are owned outright by one drug company. Aside from all this, for several of the most important and enduring problems in medicine, we have no idea what the best treatment is, because it’s not in anyone’s financial interest to conduct any trials at all.
And the consequences are devastating. Data scientist Cathy O’Neil earlier discussed one case, that of Vioxx:
Yesterday I caught a lecture at Columbia given by statistics professor David Madigan, who explained to us the story of Vioxx and Merck. It’s fascinating and I was lucky to get permission to retell it here…
Yet Madigan’s own data strongly suggests that Merck was well aware of the fatalities resulting from Vioxx, a blockbuster drug that earned them $2.4b in 2003, the year before it “voluntarily” pulled it from the market in September 2004. What you will read below shows that the company set up standard data protection and analysis plans which they later either revoked or didn’t follow through with, they gave the FDA misleading statistics to trick them into thinking the drug was safe, and set up a biased filter on an Alzheimer’s patient study to make the results look better. They hoodwinked the FDA and the New England Journal of Medicine and took advantage of the public trust which ultimately caused the deaths of thousands of people.

Saturday, September 22, 2012

DC metro area is super-rich: 7 of the 10 ten counties are in the DC suburbs.

DC metro area is super-rich: 7 of the 10 ten counties are in the DC suburbs.: "But it seems a little implausible to avoid the conclusion that on the whole the American economy has gotten more deeply invested in influence-peddling—broadly construed—and that this is driving the Washington area to the top of the charts. "

'via Blog this'

Friday, September 21, 2012

Polar sea ice could set ANOTHER record this year • The Register

Polar sea ice could set ANOTHER record this year • The Register: "Polar sea ice could set ANOTHER record this year

Exceptionally large amounts of it down south right now
By Lewis Page

The world's media is extremely excited at the thirty-year record low extent of sea ice at the North Pole which occurred just days ago: but almost nobody is reporting on the fact that something almost equally unusual is going on down around the coasts of Antarctica.


Whoa, that's a lot of ice
Even as the Arctic sea ice starts to grow again from its summery shrunken condition, the austral ice at the planet's other pole may have yet to reach its wintery peak extent. As the graph shows, at the moment it is much larger than normal for the time of year, and depending on what happens in the next week or so it might hit a record high.
'via Blog this'

Apple iOS Maps: rubbish

YOU do it • The Register:

'If more people use it, it will become less rubbish'
By Anna Leach

'via Blog this'

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Tocqueville: Book I Chapter 13

Tocqueville: Book I Chapter 13: "In countries in which the poor  have the exclusive power of making the laws, no great economy of public expenditure ought to be expected; that expenditure will always be considerable either because the taxes cannot weigh upon those who levy them or because they are levied in such a manner as not to reach these poorer classes. In other words, the government of the democracy is the only one under which the power that votes the taxes escapes the payment of them."

'via Blog this'

Plato’s Noble Lie resuscitated

“Plato’s Noble Lie resuscitated in a pas de deux of flimflammery” | Watts Up With That?: "Thomas Friedman, responding to such doubts, told Meet the Press that, “everything we would do to get ready for climate change, to build this new green industry, would make us more respected, more entrepreneurial, more competitive, more healthy as a country.”

To which Jonah Goldberg responded, “Thus Plato’s Noble Lie is resuscitated in a pas de deux of flimflammery. The diagnosis might be fake, but the cure will still fix your lumbago, whiten your teeth, and give your horse a shiny coat.”"

'via Blog this'

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

mass media bunk 35

mass media bunk "September 28, 2007. I was almost asleep when I heard the last question asked by moderator Tim Russert of NBC News of the Democratic presidential hopefuls: What is your favorite Bible verse? Christ, what are these people running for: class president of their Christian high school? Just when you think American journalism can't sink any lower, some wise guy asks another stupid question. None of the candidates had the guts to tell Russert to stick his question where the sun don't shine."

'via Blog this'

Saturday, September 08, 2012

10 Rules for Dealing with the Sharks on Wall Street | The Big Picture

 Motivation:Always ask, what is the motivation of the outfit selling me this product? Is it the long-term stability and financial health of my organization — or their own fees and commissions?

'via Blog this'

Thursday, September 06, 2012

Being a good man, however, does not mean you are a good president


Michelle Obama DNC Reactions, from "untrue and ludicrous" to "How is there even a choice???" - Hit & Run : Reason.com: "Peter Rof, Politico
She couldn’t claim that Americans are better off today than they were four years ago so she talked quite movingly about the kind of man her husband is. Being a good man, however, does not mean you are a good president and - in any event - his likability is wearing thin."

'via Blog this'

Tuesday, September 04, 2012

the role of the government is to protect the drug cartel

Guest Post: The Economics Of Breaking Bad | ZeroHedge: "As Milton Friedman famously noted:

If you look at the drug war from a purely economic point of view, the role of the government is to protect the drug cartel. That’s literally true.

There is no logical basis for the prohibition of marijuana. Our failure to successfully enforce these laws is responsible for the deaths of thousands of people in Colombia. I haven’t even included the harm to young people. It’s absolutely disgraceful to think of picking up a 22-year-old for smoking pot. More disgraceful is the denial of marijuana for medical purposes."

'via Blog this'